First, a lot can change in a heck of a hurry. There may be plenty of recurring behaviors in world politics—nations rise and fall, balances form, wars are fought and won, etc.
Big structural features such as population and geography do matter, of course, but the fate of nations has often been determined as much or more by the choices they make. Such follies remind us that things can go south in a hurry, even for those who are favorably situated. For Americans, the good news is that their country is still powerful, wealthy, and remarkably secure. The bad news is that U. Why is that a problem? Because the number of problems we need to address is growing and at an increasingly rapid rate.
Even with the best of intentions and a lot of hard work, issues such as climate change, refugees, changing labor markets, soaring deficits, violent extremists, privacy, shifting balances of power, etc. Just look at how much trouble U.
President Donald Trump is having coming up with a halfway decent policy on immigration, which was one of his signature issues during the campaign. Paradoxically, addressing problems such as these successfully will require paying less attention to conditions abroad and more attention to domestic institutions.
Instead of devoting endless hours and countless billions of dollars trying to determine the local politics of distant lands that the United States does not understand—even after nearly two decades of trying—Americans should focus more of their political energies on making their political institutions more representative, less skewed in favor of wealthy interests, and more capable of decisive action. It also means recognizing that government has an important role to play, and doing more to recruit exceptionally talented people to government service.
At the beginning of the 20th century, Americans also faced the challenges of vast inequality, a political order that was deeply corrupt, millions of new immigrants seeking a new life in the United States, and significant disagreement about the role the country should play on the world stage.
The Progressive Era was also a moment of great political energy, when reformers gradually gained political power and created many of the institutions that got the country through the 20th century. One can see analogues today in proposals for a Green New Deal or the For the People Act of , which contains various measures intended to improve U. Whatever the specific merits of these proposals, their emergence today is a hopeful sign. Whether it is enough, however, remains to be seen.
Stephen M. Fifty-nine million people, he said, have entered the United States since as immigrants, an influx that has been a key driver of population growth overall and has significantly changed our racial and ethnic composition. Making the connection between changing demographics and a strong future economy, Boushey highlighted productivity growth as a critical factor in how the country will be able to adapt and respond in the years ahead.
She noted that in coming decades, we will have fewer workers per retiree. About a third of both parties predict that the relative size of the upper class will increase. The public is uncertain whether the troubled state of race relations today will still be a feature of American life in Unlike the large differences that mark views of blacks and whites on many race-related questions, the racial divide on this question is narrower.
Optimism about the future of race relations is closely related to educational attainment. Other findings suggest the public thinks barriers that have blocked some groups from leadership positions in politics may ease in the future. Expectations of a female president are broadly shared. Eight-in-ten or more men and women, whites, blacks and Hispanics, and Republicans and Democrats predict there will be a woman in the White House by When Americans predict what the economic circumstances of the average family will be in , they do so with more trepidation than hope.
While comparatively few Americans predict a better standard of living for families, minorities are somewhat more likely than whites to be optimistic. The public also is broadly pessimistic about the economic fortunes of older Americans during the next 30 years.
The public does see at least one bright spot ahead for older Americans. However, the public is broadly pessimistic about the trajectory of health care costs over the next 30 years.
Fresh data delivered Saturday mornings. A chaotic and divided world trying to recover from major natural disasters caused by climate change? These are some of the questions the US Intelligence Community asks itself when it prepares one of the most important and interesting national security reports. Published every four years since , the Global Trends Report is the Intelligence Community's overarching assessment of geopolitical trends.
It aims to describe realistic scenarios that policymakers will face 20 years from now. As the foreword of this year's report, the seventh iteration, states, the goal of the Intelligence Community isn't to say specifically what the world will look like in but rather to highlight issues and trends that might swell in importance and that current and future administrations might find useful when creating national-security strategies.
There are several steps behind the publication of the Global Trends Report. The authors examine and reevaluate past reports and adjust their approach accordingly while also incorporating new collection and analysis methods. In addition, they seek both internal and external feedback. Indeed, open dialogues with the academic community and the private sector are key to the report. Interestingly, the authors also gathered opinions and perspectives from a wide range of domestic and international sources, including American high-school students, African civil-society organizations, and Asian businesses.
Moreover, the report's authors first studied several structural forces — namely demographics, environment, economics, and technology — and how they and other external factors, including the all-important human behavior, might affect the geopolitical scene. In addition, they calculated how some shared global challenges, including climate change, disease, financial crises, and technology disruptions, will potentially affect all nations.
Good analysis aims to provide a solid understanding of an issue and likely outcomes, thereby informing the actions of policymakers. Conversely, analysis isn't a magic ball that can see into the future and tell whether North Korea is going to launch a nuclear missile at Seattle. Sherman Kent, a legendary CIA analyst and founder of the Office of National Estimates, put it best when he said that, "Intelligence does not claim infallibility for its prophecies.
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